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| Titel |
The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Wang, R. McGrath, T. Semmler, C. Sweeney, P. Nolan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 6, no. 3 ; Nr. 6, no. 3 (2006-05-22), S.387-395 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003502
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-6-387-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The impact of climate change on local discharge
variability is investigated in the Suir River Catchment which is located in
the south-east of Ireland. In this paper, the Rossby Centre Regional
Atmospheric Model (RCA) is driven by different global climate data sets. For
the past climate (1961–2000), the model is driven by ECMWF reanalysis
(ERA-40) data as well as by the output of the general circulation models
(GCM's) ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. For the future simulation (2021–2060), the model
is driven by two GCM scenarios: ECHAM4_B2 and ECHAM5_A2. To
investigate the influence of changed future climate on local discharge, the
precipitation of the model output is used as input for the HBV hydrological
model. The calibration and validation results of our ERA-40 driven present
day simulation shows that the HBV model can reproduce the discharge fairly
well, except the extreme discharge is systematically underestimated by about
15–20%. Altogether the application of a high resolution regional climate
model in connection with a conceptual hydrological model is capable of
capturing the local variability of river discharge for present-day climate
using boundary values assimilated with observations such as ERA-40 data.
However, using GCM data to drive RCA and HBV suggests, that there is still
large uncertainty connected with the GCM formulation: For present day
climate the validation of the ECHAM4 and ECHAM5 driven simulations indicates
stronger discharge compared to the observations due to overprediction of
precipitation, especially for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the summer
season. Whereas according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario the discharge
generally increases – most pronounced in the wet winter time, there are only
slight increases in winter and considerable decreases in summer according to
the ECHAM5_A2 scenario. This also leads to a different behaviour in the
evolution of return levels of extreme discharge events: Strong increases
according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario and slight decreases according to the
ECHAM5_A2 scenario. |
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