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| Titel |
Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 – an application to the Italian Seas |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Martucci, S. Carniel, J. Chiggiato, M. Sclavo, P. Lionello, M. B. Galati |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1812-0784
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Ocean Science ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2 (2010-06-04), S.525-538 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003468
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/os-6-525-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using
the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the
Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis
yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and
winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in
late 80's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the
Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in
the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the
assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The
analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent
sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in
retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the
significant wave field. The r-largest annual maxima method provides more reliable predictions of
the extreme values especially for small return periods (<100 years).
Finally, the study statistically proves the existence of decadal negative
trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful
information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second
half of the 20th century. |
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