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| Titel |
The timescale and extent of thermal expansion of the global ocean due to climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Marčelja |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1812-0784
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Ocean Science ; 6, no. 1 ; Nr. 6, no. 1 (2010-02-05), S.179-184 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003351
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/os-6-179-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
With recently improved instrumental accuracy, the change in the heat content
of the oceans and the corresponding contribution to the change of the sea
level can be determined from in situ measurements of temperature variation
with depth. Nevertheless, it would be favourable if the same changes could
be evaluated from just the sea surface temperatures because the past record
could then be reconstructed and future scenarios explored. Using a single
column model we show that the average change in the heat content of the
oceans and the corresponding contribution to a global change in the sea
level can be evaluated from the past sea surface temperatures. The
calculation is based on the time-dependent diffusion equation with the known
fixed average upwelling velocity and eddy diffusivity, as determined from
the steady-state limit. In this limit, the model reduces to the 1966 Munk
profile of the potential temperature variation as a function of depth.
There are no adjustable parameters in the calculation and the results are in
good agreement with the estimates obtained from the in situ data. The method
allows us to obtain relevant timescales and average temperature profiles.
The evaluation of the thermosteric sea level change is extended back to the
beginning of accurate sea surface temperature records. The changes in sea
surface temperature from 1880 until the present time are estimated to have
produced a thermosteric sea level rise of 35 mm. Application to future IPCC
scenarios gives results similar to the average prediction of more complex
climate models. |
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