 |
| Titel |
The relationship between ENSO and Paraná River flow |
| VerfasserIn |
A. O. Cardoso, P. L. Silva Dias |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1680-7340
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 1st Alexander von Humboldt International Conference ; Nr. 6 (2006-02-02), S.189-193 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003257
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-6-189-2006.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Several studies indicate that there is a relationship between the climatic
variability in the South American continent and alterations of the position
and intensity of the heat sources in the equatorial region. The El Niño
phenomenon can influence the precipitation over some regions of South
America such as the Brazilian Northeast, Amazonia, South of Brazil and
Uruguay. Over 80% of Brazil's energy comes from hydropower, and decisions
concerning future availability and pricing require forecasts of river flow,
ideally several months in advance. In this work the relationship between
the Paraná River flow and the ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation)
mode is investigated and statistical forecasts of river flow are tested. An
evaluation of the relationship between the Pacific sea surface temperature
and the Paraná River flow indicates an ENSO pattern over the equatorial
Pacific. The time series of the ENSO mode obtained by applying principal
components analysis on the sea surface temperature (SST) were used as
predictors for the Paraná River flow forecast. Improvement in the model
forecast skill is also obtained by considering the lagged river flow time
series as a predictor. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|