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| Titel |
Forcing the snow-cover model SNOWPACK with forecasted weather data |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Bellaire, J. B. Jamieson, C. Fierz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 5, no. 4 ; Nr. 5, no. 4 (2011-12-14), S.1115-1125 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002762
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-5-1115-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Avalanche danger is often estimated based on snow cover stratigraphy and
snow stability data. In Canada, single forecasting regions are very large
(>50 000 km2) and snow cover data are often not available. To
provide additional information on the snow cover and its seasonal evolution
the Swiss snow cover model SNOWPACK was therefore coupled with a regional
weather forecasting model GEM15. The output of GEM15 was compared to
meteorological as well as snow cover data from Mt. Fidelity, British
Columbia, Canada, for five winters between 2005 and 2010. Precipitation
amounts are most difficult to predict for weather forecasting models.
Therefore, we first assess the capability of the model chain to forecast new
snow amounts and consequently snow depth. Forecasted precipitation amounts
were generally over-estimated. The forecasted data were therefore filtered
and used as input for the snow cover model. Comparison between the model
output and manual observations showed that after pre-processing the input
data the snow depth and new snow events were well modelled. In a case study
two key factors of snow cover instability, i.e. surface hoar formation and
crust formation were investigated at a single point. Over half of the
relevant critical layers were reproduced. Overall, the model chain shows
promising potential as a future forecasting tool for avalanche warning
services in Canadian data sparse areas and could thus well be applied to
similarly large regions elsewhere. However, a more detailed analysis of the
simulated snow cover structure is still required. |
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