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| Titel |
An Assessment of the potential impact of the Gothenburg Protocol on surface water chemistry using the dynamic MAGIC model at acid sensitive sites in the UK |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Jenkins, J. M. Cullen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 5, no. 3 ; Nr. 5, no. 3, S.529-542 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002572
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-5-529-2001.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The MAGIC model has been systematically
calibrated to 12 sites in the UK, which form part of the UK Acid Waters
Monitoring Network, using best available data. The model
successfully simulates observed changes in major ions and acid neutralising
capacity over the period 1988 to 2000. Predictions for the
future are made assuming no further emission reductions from present day
(constant deposition at current level) compared to reduced
sulphur and nitrogen emission agreed under the Gothenburg Protocol (reduced
sulphur dioxide emission by c.80%, nitrogen oxides by
c.45% and ammonia by 20% by 2010). In addition, uncertainty in our understanding
of future nitrogen dynamics is assessed using "best"
and "worst" cases of nitrogen leaching in the model. The results clearly
indicate the need to achieve further emission reductions
in sulphur and nitrogen beyond present day levels to prevent continued surface
water acidification. The predictions further indicate that
if the emission reductions agreed under the Gothenburg Protocol are achieved by
2010 this will promote a recovery in acid neutralising capacity
by 2020 at all sites. Differences between "best" and "worst" case
nitrate leaching are relatively small, emphasising the need to achieve
the sulphur reductions in the shorter term. In the longer term, beyond 2020,
increased nitrogen leaching under the "worst case" leading
to further acidification is likely indicating a need for further reduction of
nitrogen emissions.
Keywords: acidification, recovery, model, Gothenburg Protocol, nitrogen |
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