 |
| Titel |
Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Zischg, S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, J. Stötter  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 5, no. 2 ; Nr. 5, no. 2 (2005-02-23), S.235-242 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002335
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-5-235-2005.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed
using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with
emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both,
the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach
for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the
highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal
variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined
hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the
fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing
the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated
using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed
avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the
recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality
risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The
long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term
fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic
accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term
avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The
analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks
that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from
situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks
result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density
and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided
evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage
potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of
the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a
simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved
determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the
presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based
decision-making in risk management. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|