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| Titel |
Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Etzelmüller, T. V. Schuler, K. Isaksen, H. H. Christiansen, H. Farbrot, R. Benestad |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 5, no. 1 ; Nr. 5, no. 1 (2011-02-04), S.67-79 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002271
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-5-67-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Variations in ground thermal conditions in Svalbard were studied based on
measurements and modelling. Ground temperature data from boreholes were used
to calibrate a transient heat flow model describing depth and time variations
in temperatures. The model was subsequently forced with historical surface
air temperature records and possible future temperatures downscaled from
multiple global climate models. We discuss ground temperature development
since the early 20th century, and the thermal responses in relation to ground
characteristics and snow cover. The modelled ground temperatures show a
gradual increase between 1912 and 2010, by about 1.5 °C to 2 °C at 20 m depth. The active
layer thickness (ALT) is modelled to have increased slightly, with the rate
of increase depending on water content of the near-surface layers. The used
scenario runs predict a significant increase in ground temperatures and an
increase of ALT depending on soil characteristics. |
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