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| Titel |
Evaluation of hydrological models for scenario analyses: signal-to-noise-ratio between scenario effects and model uncertainty |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Bormann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Proceedings of the 8th Workshop for Large Scale Hydrological Modelling - Oppurg 2004 ; Nr. 5 (2005-12-16), S.43-48 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002166
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-5-43-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Many model applications suffer from the fact that although it is well known
that model application implies different sources of uncertainty there is no
objective criterion to decide whether a model is suitable for a particular
application or not. This paper introduces a comparative index between the
uncertainty of a model and the change effects of scenario calculations which
enables the modeller to objectively decide about suitability of a model to
be applied in scenario analysis studies. The index is called
"signal-to-noise-ratio", and it is applied for an exemplary scenario study which was performed
within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project in Benin. The conceptual UHP model was
applied on the upper Ouémé basin. Although model calibration and
validation were successful, uncertainties on model parameters and input data
could be identified. Applying the "signal-to-noise-ratio" on regional scale subcatchments of
the upper Ouémé comparing water availability indicators for
uncertainty studies and scenario analyses the UHP model turned out to be
suitable to predict long-term water balances under the present poor data
availability and changing environmental conditions in subhumid West Africa. |
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