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| Titel |
Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: PART II – A full sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach combined with a factorial experimental design |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Franchini, A. M. Hashemi, P. E. O'Connell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 4, no. 3 ; Nr. 4, no. 3, S.483-498 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001754
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-4-483-2000.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The sensitivity
analysis described in Hashemi et al. (2000) is based on one-at-a-time perturbations
to the model parameters. This type of analysis cannot highlight the presence of
parameter interactions which might indeed affect the characteristics of the
flood frequency curve (ffc) even more than the individual parameters. For this
reason, the effects of the parameters of the rainfall, rainfall runoff models
and of the potential evapotranspiration demand on the ffc are investigated here
through an analysis of the results obtained from a factorial experimental
design, where all the parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously.
This latter, more complex, analysis confirms the results obtained in
Hashemi et al. (2000) thus making the conclusions drawn there of wider validity and not
related strictly to the reference set selected. However, it is shown that
two-factor interactions are present not only between different pairs of
parameters of an individual model, but also between pairs of parameters of
different models, such as rainfall and rainfall-runoff models, thus
demonstrating the complex interaction between climate and basin characteristics
affecting the ffc and in particular its curvature.
Furthermore,
the wider range of climatic regime behaviour produced within the factorial
experimental design shows that the probability distribution of soil moisture
content at the storm arrival time is no longer sufficient to explain the link
between the perturbations to the parameters and their effects on the ffc, as was
suggested in Hashemi et al. (2000). Other factors have to be considered,
such as the probability distribution of the soil moisture capacity, and the
rainfall regime, expressed through the annual maximum rainfalls over different
durations.
Keywords: Monte
Carlo simulation; factorial experimental design; analysis of variance (ANOVA) |
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