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| Titel |
Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation under climate change (with uncertainty) |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Cameron, K. Beven  , P. Naden |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 4, no. 3 ; Nr. 4, no. 3, S.393-405 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001747
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-4-393-2000.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper explores the potential for assessing the impacts of
climate change upon
flood frequency for the gauged, upland Wye catchment at Plynlimon, Wales, UK,
while taking account of uncertainty in modelling rainfall-runoff processes under
current conditions. A continuous simulation methodology which uses a stochastic
rainfall model to drive the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is utilised. Behavioural
parameter sets for both the rainfall model and TOPMODEL are identified prior
to the climate change runs using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty
Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The "medium-high" UKCIP98 climate change
scenario, obtained from the HadCM2 GCM simulations, is used as a starting point
for a variety of different scenarios at the catchment scale. It is demonstrated
that while the scenarios have only a small impact upon the likelihood weighted
flood frequency uncertainty bounds in comparison with the current condition
scenario, the risk of a given discharge as an element in the distribution of T
year floods is changed. This underlines the need to account explicitly for
uncertainty within hydrological modelling, especially in estimating the impacts
of climate change.
Keywords: Climate change; Floods; Frequency; TOPMODEL |
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