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| Titel |
Development of avalanche risk between 1950 and 2000 in the Municipality of Davos, Switzerland |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Fuchs, M. Bründl, J. Stötter  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2004-04-16), S.263-275 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001584
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-4-263-2004.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In recent years, risk assessment has become increasingly important for the protection
of settlements against natural hazards because the public authorities have to economise
their budgets and therefore to legitimate their investments. To quantify risk,
information is needed on both, recurrence intervals of the potentially damaging natural
processes and on the associated damage potential. In the past, high efforts were
undertaken to assess the former, while the latter was almost ignored. The aim of this
study was to determine the development of the avalanche risk in the inhabited areas
of the municipality of Davos, canton of Grisons, Switzerland, for the period between
1950 and 2000. The extent of avalanche prone areas was quantified using the numerical
avalanche model AVAL-1D and the current legal hazard maps. The damage potential was
quantified by the number and reinstatement values of buildings and by the number of
persons per building. It has been demonstrated that, contrary to the frequently
expressed statement that the vulnerability of communities has increased, the risk
for this settlement in fact decreased substantially. This can mainly be attributed to the
realisation of mitigation measures, such as defence structures in avalanche starting
zones. The only exception regarding the development of risk was in the category of
residential buildings, were an increase in risk was already detectable at medium
recurrence intervals. This is remarkable because methods of land use planning, such
as hazard mapping, are intended to protect residential buildings from the impact of
hazardous processes. However, general statements referring to a larger area (region,
country) might be difficult to make, since small-scale disparities have a very important
influence on the diversification of risk and risk management. Furthermore, it has
to be emphasized that the results are highly dependent on the assumptions made in
this study. |
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