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| Titel |
An historical, geomechanical and probabilistic approach to rock-fall hazard assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Hantz, J. M. Vengeon, C. Dussauge-Peisser |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 3, no. 6 ; Nr. 3, no. 6, S.693-701 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001323
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-3-693-2003.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A new method (HGP
for Historical, Geomechanical and Probabilistic) is proposed to estimate
the failure probability of potentially unstable rock masses in a
homogenous area, as a function of time. Analysis of a rock falls inventory
yields the mean number of rock falls which may be expected in the area for
the given time period and a given volume range. According to their
geomechanical features, the potentially unstable rock masses are
distributed in classes corresponding to different failure probabilities.
The expected number of rock falls can be expressed as a function of these
unknown probabilities. Assuming that only the ratio between these
probabilities can be estimated, combining the historical and geomechanical
analysis allows estimating the order of magnitude of the different failure
probabilities. The method gives a quantitative significance to the
evaluations which are usually attributed to potentially unstable rock
masses. Rock-fall hazard can then be compared with other natural hazards,
such as floods or earthquakes. The method is applied to a case study of
calcareous cliffs in the area of Grenoble, France. |
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