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| Titel |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Goosse, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, M.-F. Loutre |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 3, no. 4 ; Nr. 3, no. 4 (2007-12-20), S.683-692 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001182
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-3-683-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last
decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but
uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with
the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been
performed to show that summer sea ice changes during the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) and the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing for the
reduction of this uncertainty. Using the limited number of records presently
available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes
over the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand,
simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the
20th century (and also over the 21st century) are not consistent
with recent observations. Using this very complementary information based on
observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most
realistic projection with LOVECLIM indicates a nearly disappearance of the
sea ice in summer at the end of the 21st century for a moderate
increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results thus
strongly indicate that additional proxy records of the early Holocene sea
ice changes, in particular in the central Arctic Basin, would help to
improve our projections of summer sea ice evolution and that the simulation
at 8 kyr BP should be considered as a standard test for models aiming at
simulating those future summer sea ice changes in the Arctic. |
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