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| Titel |
Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Brewer, J. Guiot, F. Torre |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 3, no. 3 ; Nr. 3, no. 3 (2007-08-21), S.499-512 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001077
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-3-499-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation
Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of
palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences
distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were
available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and
growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to
provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then
investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar
patterns of change and 2)
the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to
compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties
from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were
compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region
as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models
are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A
test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that,
although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change,
they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene. |
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