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| Titel |
Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations |
| VerfasserIn |
A. J. Pitman, N. Noblet-Ducoudré, F. B. Avila, L. V. Alexander, J.-P. Boisier, V. Brovkin, C. Delire, F. Cruz, M. G. Donat, V. Gayler, B. Hurk, C. Reick, A. Voldoire |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 3, no. 2 ; Nr. 3, no. 2 (2012-11-26), S.213-231 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001012
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-3-213-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC) on
regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within
the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To
assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum
temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of
LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2
from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and
low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean
temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense
modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature
extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced
change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response
to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically
isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the
increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes
in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual
models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in
rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much
less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception
of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of
mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that
unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the
drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC. |
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