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| Titel |
Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Machguth, R. S. Purves, J. Oerlemans  , M. Hoelzle, F. Paul |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 2, no. 2 ; Nr. 2, no. 2 (2008-12-08), S.191-204 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000535
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-2-191-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled
cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue
of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of
intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was tuned
to observed mass balance for the investigated time period and its robustness
was tested by comparing observed and modelled mass balance over 11 years,
yielding very small deviations. Both systematic and random uncertainties are
assigned to twelve input parameters and their respective values estimated
from the literature or from available meteorological data sets. The
calculated overall uncertainty in the model output is dominated by systematic
errors and amounts to 0.7 m w.e. or approximately 10% of total melt over
the investigated time span. In order to provide a first order estimate on
variability in uncertainty depending on the quality of input data, we
conducted a further experiment, calculating overall uncertainty for different
levels of uncertainty in measured global radiation and air temperature. Our
results show that the output of a well calibrated model is subject to
considerable uncertainties, in particular when applied for extrapolation in
time and space where systematic errors are likely to be an important issue. |
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