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| Titel |
A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Todini, M. Bacco |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 1, no. 2 ; Nr. 1, no. 2, S.367-378 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000155
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-1-367-1997.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A new probabilistic interpretation of at site rainfall
sequences is introduced for the development of a stochastic model of rain.
The model, is divided into two sub models; the first one describing the
total number of rainfall spells within a window of time is described by
a Pòlya process in order to reproduce better the variable probability of
occurrence of rainfall during storm events (due to the presence of different
numbers of rainfall cells); the second sub model, conditional on the first
one, describes the total quantity of rainfall in the time window, given
a number of rainfall spells.
The probabilistic rainfall model, which has
shown interesting properties in reproducing the probability distribution
of observed data at time scales ranging from one hour to twenty-four hours,
may be the basis for a number of applications which include the development
of a conditional stochastic generator of rain, within the frame of real-time
flood forecasting, and the derivation of a probabilistic distribution of
rainfall extremes at the various time scales. |
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