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| Titel |
Assessment of risks of loose landslide deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Zhang, L. M. Zhang, M. Peng, L. L. Zhang, H. F. Zhao, H. X. Chen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 5 ; Nr. 12, no. 5 (2012-05-09), S.1381-1392 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010806
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1381-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based quantitative
risk assessment methodology was adopted to evaluate the risks of loose
deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake along a highway near the
epicenter. A total of 305 loose deposits with a total volume of 4.0 × 107 m3
has been identified. A physical model was used to determine
the failure probability of these loose deposits under six rainfall scenarios,
assuming the loose deposits as infinite slopes. The calculated probability
of rain-induced slope failures is verified by the recorded landslides at the
same site during a storm in 2010. Seventy-nine out of the 112 rain-induced
loose deposit failures are predicted by the reliability analysis, with an
accuracy of 71%. The results of reliability analysis and information on
the consequence of these rain-induced landslides enable the estimation of
the annual societal and individual risks of the loose deposits. Under the
rainfall scenarios of 30 mm/12 h and 70 mm/12 h, the estimated annual
societal risks reach 8.8 and 7.5, respectively, and the individual risks
reach 0.05 and 0.04, respectively, which are very high compared with present
risk acceptance criteria. The preliminary assessment provides a benchmark
for studying the long-term risks of these loose deposits and engineering
decision. |
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