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| Titel |
The question of Sudan: a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Satti, B. Zaitchik, S. Siddiqui |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 5 ; Nr. 19, no. 5 (2015-05-13), S.2275-2293 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120711
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-2275-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate in
eastern Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile.
Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime location
within the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have great
social, economic and political implications for the region. At the same time,
Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstream
irrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as by
the country's commitments under existing or future transboundary water
sharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluate
optimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower in
the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined with
agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within
the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is
performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to
changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that
changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the
productivity of Sudan's water resource infrastructure. Results also show that
the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance
of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of
agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological
conditions. |
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