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| Titel |
Assessment of heavy rainfall-induced disaster potential based on an ensemble simulation of Typhoon Talas (2011) with controlled track and intensity |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Oku, J. Yoshino, T. Takemi, H. Ishikawa |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 10 ; Nr. 14, no. 10 (2014-10-07), S.2699-2709 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118707
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2699-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Typhoon Talas (2011) caused extensive damage through landslides on the Kii
Peninsula, Japan, in September 2011. The purpose of the present study is to
quantitatively describe the potential for the occurrence of heavy
rainfall-induced disasters if the typhoon track perturbs slightly or the
typhoon intensifies. Regarding to the consideration of the track displacement
of the typhoon, a procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracks
perturbed from the original track of the typhoon. In this procedure, the
position of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time before
landing in a physically consistent manner by applying potential vorticity
inversion (PVI) methodology. After relocating the typhoon, the subsequent
progress is simulated by a mesoscale meteorological model. Using the output,
which consists of a set of realizations having different typhoon tracks, the
worst-case scenario is discussed in terms of the soil water index (SWI) of
the Kii Peninsula. The SWI is an indicator of the amount of water in soil
that represents the hazard of landslide disasters. The maximum spatially
averaged SWI is 1.10 times as large as that from the original typhoon track.
Regarding the consideration of severer typhoon, the same method is used, but
the intensity of the potential vorticity of a typhoon is artificially
modified at the position instead of relocating potential vorticity to a
different place. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.28 times as large as
that of the original typhoon intensity. |
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