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| Titel |
Predicting climate extremes – a complex network approach |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Weimer, S. Mieruch, G. Schädler, C. Kottmeier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2198-5634
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions ; 2, no. 5 ; Nr. 2, no. 5 (2015-10-13), S.1481-1505 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115198
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npgd-2-1481-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Regional decadal predictions have emerged in the past few years as
a research field with high application potential, especially for
extremes like heat and drought periods. However, up to now the
prediction skill of decadal hindcasts, as evaluated with standard
methods is moderate, and for extreme values even rarely
investigated. In this study, we use hindcast data from a regional
climate model (CCLM) for 8 regions in Europe to construct time
evolving climate networks and use the network correlation threshold
(link strength) as a predictor for heat periods. We show that the
skill of the network measure to predict the low frequency dynamics
of heat periods is similar to the one of the standard approach, with
the potential of being even better in some regions. |
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