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| Titel |
Statistical eruption forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: typical probabilities of volcanic eruptions as baseline for possibly enhanced activity following the large 2010 Concepción earthquake |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Dzierma, H. Wehrmann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 10 ; Nr. 10, no. 10 (2010-10-08), S.2093-2108 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008443
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-2093-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for ten volcanoes of the
Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ). Since 70% of the Chilean
population lives in this area, the estimation of future eruption likelihood
is an important part of hazard assessment. After investigating the
completeness and stationarity of the historical eruption time series, the
exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the
repose time distributions for the individual volcanoes and the models are
evaluated. This procedure has been implemented in two different ways to
methodologically compare details in the fitting process. With regard to the
probability of at least one VEI ≥ 2 eruption in the next decade,
Llaima, Villarrica and Nevados de Chillán are most likely to erupt,
while Osorno shows the lowest eruption probability among the
volcanoes analysed. In addition to giving a compilation of the statistical
eruption forecasts along the historically most active volcanoes of the SVZ,
this paper aims to give "typical" eruption probabilities, which may in the
future permit to distinguish possibly enhanced activity in the
aftermath of the large 2010 Concepción earthquake. |
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