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| Titel |
Earthquake forecasting using the rate-and-state friction model and a smoothing Kernel: application to Taiwan |
| VerfasserIn |
C.-H. Chan, Y.-M. Wu, J.-P. Wang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 10 ; Nr. 12, no. 10 (2012-10-04), S.3045-3057 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011142
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-3045-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this work, two approaches were employed for estimating the
spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity density in Taiwan. With the use
of the rate-and-state friction model, a model for short-term forecasting
according to the fault-interaction-based rate disturbance due to seismicity
was considered. Another long-term forecasting model that involves a
smoothing Kernel function is proposed. The application of the models to
Taiwan led to good agreement between the model forecast and actual
observations. Using an integration of the two approaches, the application
was found to be capable of providing a seismicity forecast with a higher
accuracy and reliability. To check the stability related to the regression
the bandwidth function, the forecasted seismicity rates corresponding to the
upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals are compared. The
result shows that deviations within the bandwidth functions had an
insignificant impact on forecasting reliability. Besides, insignificant
differences in the forecasted rate change were obtained when Aσ was
assumed to be between 0.1 and 0.4 bars for the application of the
rate-and-state friction model. By considering the maximum Coulomb stress
change among the seismogenic depth, the model presents a better forecasting
ability than that using any single fixed target depth. The proposed
methodology, with verified applicability for seismicity forecasts, could be
useful for seismic hazard analyses. |
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