 |
| Titel |
Inundation scenarios for flood damage evaluation in polder areas |
| VerfasserIn |
L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, A. J. Wagtendonk, J. C. J. H. Aerts |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 6 ; Nr. 9, no. 6 (2009-12-03), S.1995-2007 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007066
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-1995-2009.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| We present an approach for flood damage simulations through the creation of a
comparatively large number of inundation scenarios for a polder area, using a
high-resolution digital elevation model. In particular, the method could be
used for detailed scenario studies of the impact of future socioeconomic and
climatic developments on flood risks. The approach is applied to a case-study
area in the south of the Netherlands along the river Meuse. The advantage of
our approach is that a large number of potential flood events can be created
relatively fast without hydrodynamical calculations, and that it can be
applied to high-resolution elevation models and for large areas. The large
number of flood scenarios and the high horizontal resolution reduces at least
part of the uncertainties encountered in flood loss modelling. The approach
with a low horizontal-resolution (100-m) for loss modelling results in an
overestimation of losses by up to 22% for high density urban areas, and
underestimation of 100% for infrastructure, compared to the high-resolution
(25-m). Loss modelling at 5-m horizontal resolution shows that aggregate
losses may be overestimated by some 4.3%, compared to the 25-m resolution.
The generation of a large variety of inundation scenarios provides a basis
for constructing loss probability curves. The calculated range and expected
values of damages compare reasonably well with earlier independent estimates. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|