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| Titel |
Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Viste, A. Sorteberg |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 9, no. 3 ; Nr. 9, no. 3 (2015-06-02), S.1147-1167 |
| Datensatznummer |
250116806
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-9-1147-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Snow and ice provide large amounts of meltwater to the Indus, Ganges and
Brahmaputra rivers. This study combines present-day observations and
reanalysis data with climate model projections to estimate the amount of
snow falling over the basins today and in the last decades of the 21st century.
Estimates of present-day snowfall based on a combination of
temperature and precipitation from reanalysis data and observations vary by
factors of 2–4. The spread is large, not just between the reanalysis and
the observations but also between the different observational data sets.
With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the climate
models project reductions in annual snowfall by 30–50% in the Indus
Basin, 50–60% in the Ganges Basin and 50–70% in the Brahmaputra
Basin by 2071–2100. The reduction is due to increasing temperatures, as
the mean of the models show constant or increasing precipitation throughout
the year in most of the region. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing
scenario, the mean elevation where rain changes to snow – the rain/snow
line – creeps upward by 400–900 m, in most of the region by 700–900
meters. The largest relative change in snowfall is seen in the upper
westernmost sub-basins of the Brahmaputra. With the strongest forcing
scenario, most of this region will have temperatures above freezing,
especially in the summer. The projected reduction in annual snowfall is
65–75%. In the upper Indus, the effect of a warmer climate on snowfall
is less extreme, as most of the terrain is high enough to have temperatures
sufficiently far below freezing today. A 20–40% reduction in annual
snowfall is projected. |
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