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| Titel |
A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes |
| VerfasserIn |
M. H. Spekkers, M. Kok, F. H. L. R. Clemens, J. A. E. Veldhuis |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 3 ; Nr. 17, no. 3 (2013-03-04), S.913-922 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018812
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-913-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper, a database of water-related insurance damage claims related to
private properties and content was analysed. The aim was to investigate whether the probability of occurrence of rainfall-related
damage was associated with the intensity of rainfall. Rainfall data were used for the period of 2003–2009 in the
Netherlands based on a network of 33 automatic rain gauges operated by the
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Insurance damage data were
aggregated to areas within 10-km range of the rain gauges. Through a logistic
regression model, high claim numbers were linked to maximum rainfall
intensities, with rainfall intensity based on 10-min to 4-h time windows.
Rainfall intensity proved to be a significant damage predictor; however, the
explained variance, approximated by a pseudo-R2 statistic, was at most
34% for property damage and at most 30% for content damage. When
directly comparing predicted and observed values, the model was able to
predict 5–17% more cases correctly compared to a random prediction. No
important differences were found between relations with property and content
damage data. A considerable fraction of the variance is left unexplained,
which emphasizes the need to study damage generating mechanisms and
additional explanatory variables. |
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