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| Titel |
The World Already Avoided: Quantifying the Ozone Benefits Achieved by the Montreal Protocol |
| VerfasserIn |
Martyn Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, Richard McKenzie, Guus Velders, John Pyle |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250110973
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-11032.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Chlorine and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic Ozone Hole expected to disappear by ~2050. However, we show that by 2014 the Montreal Protocol has already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using an off-line 3-D atmospheric chemistry model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with benefits for surface UV and climate. A deep Arctic Ozone Hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given the meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic Ozone Hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The ozone decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ~15% by 2013. |
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