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| Titel |
Assessment of the effectiveness of flood adaptation strategies for HCMC |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Lasage, T. I. E. Veldkamp, H. de Moel, T. C. Van, H. L. Phi, P. Vellinga, J. C. J. H. Aerts |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 6 ; Nr. 14, no. 6 (2014-06-06), S.1441-1457 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118494
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1441-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities
will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, Asian cities in particular are
subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments,
increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost
and benefits of flood risk reduction measures are therefore paramount for
sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to
explore the impacts of sea-level rise and socio-economic developments on
flood risk for the flood-prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and
to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new
levees, dry- and wet proofing of buildings and elevating roads and buildings).
A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk
using the results from a household survey to establish stage–damage curves
for residential buildings. The model has been used to assess the effects of
several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk,
expressed in expected annual damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were
evaluated assuming combinations of both sea-level scenarios and land-use
scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we
calculated the benefit–cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation
strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and
5%.
The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in
District 4 is USD 0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in
2100. The net present value and benefit–cost ratios using a discount rate of
5 % range from USD −107 to −1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the
different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase
in both net present value and benefit–cost ratio. The adaptation strategies
wet-proofing and dry-proofing generate the best results using these economic
indicators. The information on different strategies will be used by the
government of Ho Chi Minh City to determine a new flood protection
strategy. Future research should focus on gathering empirical data right
after a flood on the occurring damage, as this appears to be the most
uncertain factor in the risk assessment. |
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