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| Titel |
Evaluation of a compound distribution based on weather pattern subsampling for extreme rainfall in Norway |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Blanchet, J. Touati, D. Lawrence, F. Garavaglia, E. Paquet |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 12 ; Nr. 15, no. 12 (2015-12-10), S.2653-2667 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119820
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-2653-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Simulation methods for design flood analyses require estimates of extreme
precipitation for simulating maximum discharges. This article evaluates the multi-exponential weather pattern
(MEWP) model, a compound model based on weather pattern classification,
seasonal splitting and exponential distributions, for its suitability for use
in Norway. The MEWP model is the probabilistic rainfall model used in the
SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation. Regional scores
of evaluation are used in a split sample framework to compare the MEWP distribution with
more general heavy-tailed distributions, in this case the Multi Generalized Pareto Weather
Pattern (MGPWP) distribution. The analysis shows the clear benefit obtained from seasonal
and weather pattern-based subsampling for extreme value estimation. The MEWP distribution is
found to have an overall better performance as compared with the MGPWP, which tends to overfit
the data and lacks robustness. Finally, we take advantage of the split sample framework to present
evidence for an increase in extreme rainfall in the southwestern part of Norway during the period 1979–2009, relative to 1948–1978. |
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