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| Titel |
The importance of year-to-year variation in meteorological and runoff forcing for water quality of a temperate, dimictic lake |
| VerfasserIn |
A. T. Romarheim, K. Tominaga, G. Riise, T. Andersen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 6 ; Nr. 19, no. 6 (2015-06-08), S.2649-2662 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120733
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-2649-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Natural stochasticity can pose challenges in managing the quality of the
environment, or hinder understanding of the system structure. It is
problematic because unfavourable stochastic events cancel management efforts
and because a favourable stochastic event may overestimate perceived success.
This paper presents a variance-based modelling method that can be used to
quantify the extent to which natural stochasticity can affect the target
environment. We use a case study of a eutrophication assessment of a
Norwegian lake, Årungen, using a lake model, MyLake, in order to present
the method, and to investigate how this method could assist in answering scientific and
management questions. Here we contrasted two effects of nutrient loading in
runoff (partially controllable by policies) and meteorology (purely natural
stochastic events), illustrated in the case study, in order to achieve the
season-by-season quantification of mutually confounding factors of stochastic
events. The results indicate that, for example, variation in runoff volume
was most prevalent during autumn and winter, while variation in phosphorus
inflow was most extensive from late winter to early spring. Thermal-related
properties in the lake were well predicted by the model, and showed that the
time of thermocline formation varied among years by more than 1 month, from
mid-April to mid-May, whereas loading was the most important factor for
phytoplankton biomass and water transparency. Mild winters and greater inputs
of suspended matter and phosphorus were followed by increased phytoplankton
biomass and light attenuation. These findings also suggest that future
changes in the global climate may have important implications for local water
management decision-making. The present method of disentangling mutually
confounding factors is not limited to lake water quality studies and may also
provide utility in other types of aquatic system modelling. |
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