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| Titel |
Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate |
| VerfasserIn |
Z. K. Tesemma, Y. Wei, M. C. Peel, A. W. Western |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 6 ; Nr. 19, no. 6 (2015-06-19), S.2821-2836 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120745
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-2821-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enrich the atmosphere with
carbon dioxide, change vegetation dynamics and influence the availability of
water at the catchment scale. This study combines a
nonlinear model for estimating
changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to climatic fluctuations with the
variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to improve catchment
streamflow prediction under a changing climate. The combined model was
applied to 13 gauged sub-catchments
with different land cover types (crop, pasture and tree) in the
Goulburn–Broken catchment, Australia, for the "Millennium Drought"
(1997–2009) relative to the period 1983–1995, and for two future periods
(2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and two emission scenarios (Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5) which were compared with the
baseline historical period of 1981–2010. This region was projected to be
warmer and mostly drier in the future as predicted by 38 Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) runs from 15 global climate models
(GCMs) and for two emission scenarios. The results showed that during the
Millennium Drought there was about a 29.7–66.3 % reduction in mean
annual runoff due to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. When
drought-induced changes in LAI were included, smaller reductions in mean
annual runoff of between 29.3 and 61.4 % were predicted. The proportional
increase in runoff due to modeling LAI was 1.3–10.2 % relative to not
including LAI. For projected climate change under the RCP4.5 emission
scenario, ignoring the LAI response to changing climate could lead to a
further reduction in mean annual runoff of between 2.3 and 27.7 % in the
near-term (2021–2050) and 2.3 to 23.1 % later in the century
(2071–2100) relative to modeling the dynamic response of LAI to
precipitation and temperature changes. Similar results (near-term
2.5–25.9 % and end of century 2.6–24.2 %) were found for climate
change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Incorporating climate-induced
changes in LAI in the VIC model reduced the projected declines in streamflow
and confirms the importance of including the effects of changes in LAI in
future projections of streamflow. |
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