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| Titel |
Is 30-second update fast enough for convection-resolving data assimilation? |
| VerfasserIn |
Takemasa Miyoshi, Juan Ruiz, Guo-Yuan Lien, Toshiki Teramura, Keiichi Kondo, Yasumitsu Maejima, Takumi Honda, Shigenori Otsuka |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250140089
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-3429.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| For local severe weather forecasting at 100-m resolution with 30-minute lead time, we have been working on the “Big Data Assimilation” (BDA) effort for super-rapid 30-second cycle of an ensemble Kalman filter. We have presented two papers with the concept and case studies (Miyoshi et al. 2016, BAMS; Proceedings of the IEEE). We focus on the non-Gaussian PDF in this study. We were hoping that we could assume the Gaussian error distribution in 30-second forecasts before strong nonlinear dynamics distort the error distribution for rapidly-changing convective storms. However, using 1000 ensemble members, the reduced-resolution version of the BDA system at 1-km grid spacing with 30-second updates showed ubiquity of highly non-Gaussian PDF. Although our results so far with multiple case studies were quite successful, this gives us a doubt about our Gaussian assumption even if the data assimilation interval is short enough compared with the system’s chaotic time scale. We therefore pose a question if the 30-second update is fast enough for convection-resolving data assimilation under the Gaussian assumption. To answer this question, we aim to gain combined knowledge from BDA case studies, 1000-member experiments, 30-second breeding experiments, and toy-model experiments with dense and frequent observations. In this presentation, we will show the most up-to-date results of the BDA research, and will discuss about the question if the 30-second update is fast enough for convective-scale data assimilation. |
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