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| Titel |
The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought |
| VerfasserIn |
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, D. McNeall |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 6 ; Nr. 17, no. 6 (2013-06-27), S.2339-2358 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018909
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2339-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Drought is a cumulative event, often difficult to define and involving
wide-reaching consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, water availability,
and society. Understanding how the occurrence of drought may change in the
future and which sources of uncertainty are dominant can inform appropriate
decisions to guide drought impacts assessments. Our study considers both
climate model uncertainty associated with future climate projections, and
future emissions of greenhouse gases (future scenario uncertainty). Four
drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Soil Moisture
Anomaly (SMA), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardised
Runoff Index (SRI)) are calculated for the A1B and RCP2.6 future emissions
scenarios using monthly model output from a 57-member perturbed parameter
ensemble of climate simulations of the HadCM3C Earth System model, for the
baseline period 1961–1990, and the period 2070–2099 ("the 2080s"). We
consider where there are statistically significant increases or decreases in
the proportion of time spent in drought in the 2080s compared to the
baseline. Despite the large range of uncertainty in drought projections for
many regions, projections for some regions have a clear signal, with
uncertainty associated with the magnitude of change rather than direction.
For instance, a significant increase in time spent in drought is generally
projected for the Amazon, Central America and South Africa whilst projections
for northern India consistently show significant decreases in time spent in
drought. Whilst the patterns of changes in future drought were similar
between scenarios, climate mitigation, represented by the RCP2.6 scenario,
tended to reduce future changes in drought. In general, climate mitigation
reduced the area over which there was a significant increase in drought but
had little impact on the area over which there was a significant decrease in
time spent in drought. |
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