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| Titel |
Evaluating life-safety risk of fieldwork at New Zealand's active volcanoes |
| VerfasserIn |
Natalia Deligne, Gill Jolly, Tony Taig, Terry Webb |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250095546
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-11005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Volcano observatories monitor active or potentially active volcanoes. Although the
number and scope of remote monitoring instruments and methods continues to grow,
in-person field data collection is still required for comprehensive monitoring. Fieldwork
anywhere, and especially in mountainous areas, contains an element of risk. However,
on volcanoes with signs of unrest, there is an additional risk of volcanic activity
escalating while on site, with potentially lethal consequences. As an employer, a
volcano observatory is morally and sometimes legally obligated to take reasonable
measures to ensure staff safety and to minimise occupational risk. Here we present how
GNS Science evaluates life-safety risk for volcanologists engaged in fieldwork on
New Zealand volcanoes with signs of volcanic unrest. Our method includes several
key elements: (1) an expert elicitation for how likely an eruption is within a given
time frame, (2) quantification of, based on historical data when possible, given a
small, moderate, or large eruption, the likelihood of exposure to near-vent processes,
ballistics, or surge at various distances from the vent, and (3) estimate of fatality
rate given exposure to these volcanic hazards. The final product quantifies hourly
fatality risk at various distances from a volcanic vent; various thresholds of risk (for
example, zones with more than 10-5 hourly fatality risk) trigger different levels of
required approval to undertake work. Although an element of risk will always be
present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step
towards providing objective guidance for go/no go decisions for volcanic monitoring. |
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