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| Titel |
Water supply patterns over Germany under climate change conditions |
| VerfasserIn |
M. H. Tölle, C. Moseley, O. Panferov, G. Busch, A. Knohl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 10, no. 5 ; Nr. 10, no. 5 (2013-05-02), S.2959-2972 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018232
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-10-2959-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A large ensemble of 24 bias-corrected and uncorrected regional climate model
(RCM) simulations is used to investigate climate change impacts on water
supply patterns over Germany using the seasonal winter and summer
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on 6-month precipitation sums.
The climate change signal is studied comparing SPI characteristics for the
reference period 1971–2000 with those of the "near" (2036–2065) and the
"far" (2071–2100) future. The spread of the climate change signal within
the simulation ensemble of bias-corrected versus non-corrected data is
discussed. Ensemble scenarios are evaluated against available
observation-based data over the reference period 1971–2000. After correcting
the model biases, the model ensemble underestimates the variability of the
precipitation climatology in the reference period, but replicates the mean
characteristics. Projections of water supply patterns based on the SPI for
the time periods 2036–2065 and 2071–2100 show wetter winter months during
both future time periods. As a result soil drying may be delayed to late
spring extending into the summer period, which could have an important effect
on sensible heat fluxes. While projections indicate wetting in summer during
2036–2065, drier summers are estimated towards the south-west of Germany for
the end of the 21st century. The use of the bias correction intensifies the
signal to wetter conditions for both seasons and time periods. The spread in
the projection of future water supply patterns between the ensemble members
is explored, resulting in high spatial differences that suggest a higher
uncertainty of the climate change signal in the southern part of Germany. It
is shown that the spread of the climate change signals between SPIs based on
single ensemble members is twice as large as the difference between the mean
climate change signal of SPIs based on bias-corrected and uncorrected
precipitation. This implies that the sensitivity of the SPI to the modelled
precipitation bias is small compared to the range of the climate change
signals within our ensemble. Therefore, the SPI is a very useful tool for
climate change studies allowing us to avoid the additional uncertainties caused
by bias corrections. |
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