 |
| Titel |
Internal Variability in Simulated and Observed Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends |
| VerfasserIn |
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Chao Li, Peter W. Thorne, Jochem Marotzke |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
en
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250143803
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-7557.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| We revisit possible discrepancies between observed and simulated warming in the upper
tropical troposphere, focusing on the role of internal variability. We compare all extant
radiosonde-based estimates for the period 1958–2014 to simulations from the CMIP5
multi-model ensemble and the 100-realization ensemble with the climate model
MPI-ESM-LR. We consider annual-mean temperatures and all available 30- and 15-year
trends. Most observed trends fall within the ensemble spread for most of the record, with
generally larger discrepancies for the older observational products. Trends calculated from
least absolute deviations show better agreement than those based on ordinary least squares,
and 15-year trends show better agreement than 30-year trends. The largest discrepancies
occur for the amplification of tropospheric over surface warming, for 30-year trends in the
second half of the period. We conclude that trend differences between observations and
simulations of tropical tropospheric temperatures are dominated by observational uncertainty
and chaotic internal variability. |
|
|
|
|
|
|