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| Titel |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Sofiev, U. Berger, M. Prank, J. Vira, J. Arteta, J. Belmonte, K.-C. Bergmann, F. Chéroux, H. Elbern, E. Friese, C. Galan, R. Gehrig, D. Khvorostyanov, R. Kranenburg, U. Kumar, V. Marecal, F. Meleux, L. Menut, A.-M. Pessi, L. Robertson, O. Ritenberga, V. Rodinkova, A. Saarto, A. Segers, E. Severova, I. Sauliene, P. Siljamo, B. M. Steensen, E. Teinemaa, M. Thibaudon, V.-H. Peuch |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 14 ; Nr. 15, no. 14 (2015-07-23), S.8115-8130 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119921
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-8115-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation
to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of
MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run
through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with
observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network,
for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown
that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season
of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of
the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than
observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term
used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were
somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the
northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly
overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble
demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of
outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the
first experience of pollen forecasting. |
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