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| Titel |
Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Jaedicke, A. Solheim, L. H. Blikra, K. Stalsberg, A. Sorteberg, A. Aaheim, K. Kronholm, D. Vikhamar-Schuler, K. Isaksen, K. Sletten, K. Kristensen, I. Barstad, C. Melchiorre, Ø. A. Høydal, H. Mestl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2008-08-19), S.893-904 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005661
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-893-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow,
rock, clay and debris) pose together with floods the main geohazards in
Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and
considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The
interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating
the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches,
extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and
estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project
is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database
consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled
with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides
and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and
near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a
stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of
climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four
selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The
statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus
weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country.
Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides
and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach
applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway
proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than
conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in
one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in
a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated
in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of
the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing project will
apply the future climate scenarios to predict the changes in geohazard
levels, as well as an evaluation of the resulting socioeconomic effects on
the Norwegian society in the coming 50 years. |
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