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| Titel |
Spatial patterns of schistosomiasis in Burkina Faso: relevance of human mobility and water resources development |
| VerfasserIn |
Javier Perez-Saez, Enrico Bertuzzo, Jean-Marc Frohelich, Theophile Mande, Natalie Ceperley, Mariam Sou, Hamma Yacouba, Hamadou Maiga, Susanne Sokolow, Giulio De Leo, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Lorenzo Mari, Andrea Rinaldo |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250106651
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-6328.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We study the spatial geography of schistosomiasis in the african context of Burkina Faso by
means of a spatially explicit model of disease dynamics and spread. The relevance of our
work lies in its ability to describe quantitatively a geographic stratification of the disease
burden capable of reproducing important spatial differences, and drivers/controls of disease
spread. Among the latters, we consider specifically the development and management of
water resources which have been singled out empirically as an important risk factor for
schistosomiasis. The model includes remotely acquired and objectively manipulated
information on the distributions of population, infrastructure, elevation and climatic drivers. It
also includes a general description of human mobility and addresses a first-order
characterization of the ecology of the intermediate host of the parasite causing the disease
based on maximum entropy learning of relevant environmenal covariates. Spatial patterns of
the disease were analyzed about their disease-free equilibrium by proper extraction and
mapping of suitable eigenvectors of the Jacobian matrix subsuming all stability
properties of the system. Human mobility was found to be a primary control of both
pathogen invasion success and of the overall distribution of disease burden. The
effects of water resources development were studied by accounting for the (prior and
posterior) average distances of human settlements from water bodies that may serve as
suitable habitats to the intermediate host of the parasite. Water developments, in
combination with human mobility, were quantitatively related to disease spread
into regions previously nearly disease-free and to large-scale empirical incidence
patterns. We concluded that while the model still needs refinements based on field and
epidemiological evidence, the framework proposed provides a powerful tool for
large-scale, long-term public health planning and management of schistosomiasis. |
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