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| Titel |
Complexity and predictability of daily precipitation in a semi-arid region: an application to Ceará, Brazil |
| VerfasserIn |
M. E. S. Silva, L. M. V. Carvalho, M. A. F. Silva Dias, T. de M. B. S. Xavier |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 13, no. 6 ; Nr. 13, no. 6 (2006-11-27), S.651-659 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011874
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-13-651-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Complexity and predictability of daily precipitation in a tropical semi-arid
region (Ceará State, Brazil) is assessed by applying entropy concepts.
Precipitation regimes in that region depend on several dynamical forcings,
the most important being the displacement and activity of the Inter-tropical
Convergence Zone in the Atlantic Ocean. Topography is another important
factor that influences the spatial distribution of rainfall in the region. A
hierarchical approach based on sequences of events of different lengths is
used to estimate complexity of daily precipitation records. It is shown that
precipitation in Ceará exhibit more random than periodic sequences,
which indicates a large degree of complexity. Nevertheless, there is
indication of potentially inherent rules in the precipitation time-series
that could ultimately improve prediction on time-scales between 9–11 days.
It is suggested that synoptic-scale disturbances (1–8 days) represent
important sources of rules in the precipitation regimes in this region. |
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