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| Titel |
Simulation of a class of hazardous situations in the ICS «INM RAS – Baltic Sea» |
| VerfasserIn |
Natalia Zakharova, Valery Agoshkov, Nikita Aseev, Eugene Parmuzin, Tateana Sheloput, Victor Shutyaev |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250139278
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-2486.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Development of Informational Computational Systems (ICS) for data assimilation procedures is one of multidisciplinary problems. To study and solve these problems one needs to apply modern results from different disciplines and recent developments in mathematical modeling, theory of adjoint equations and optimal control, inverse problems, numerical methods theory, numerical algebra, scientific computing and processing of satellite data.
In this work the results on the ICS development for PC-ICS “INM RAS – Baltic Sea” are presented. We discuss practical problems studied by ICS. The System includes numerical model of the Baltic Sea thermodynamics, the new oil spill model describing the propagation of a slick at the Sea surface (Agoshkov, Aseev et al., 2014) and the optimal ship route calculating block (Agoshkov, Zayachkovsky et al., 2014). The ICS is based on the INMOM numerical model of the Baltic Sea thermodynamics (Zalesny et al., 2013). It is possible to calculate main hydrodynamic parameters (temperature, salinity, velocities, sea level) using user-friendly interface of the ICS. The System includes data assimilation procedures (Agoshkov, 2003, Parmuzin, Agoshkov, 2012) and one can use the block of variational assimilation of the sea surface temperature in order to obtain main hydrodynamic parameters. Main possibilities of the ICS and several numerical experiments are presented in the work.
By the problem of risk control is meant a problem of determination of optimal resources quantity which are necessary for decreasing the risk to some acceptable value. Mass of oil slick is chosen as a function of control. For the realization of the random variable the quadratic “functional of cost” is introduced. It comprises cleaning costs and deviation of damage of oil pollution from its acceptable value. The problem of minimization of this functional is solved based on the methods of optimal control and the theory of adjoint equations. The solution of this problem is explicitly found.
The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 16-31-00510) and by the Russian Science Foundation (project №14-11-00609).
V. I. Agoshkov, Methods of Optimal Control and Adjoint Equations in Problems of Mathematical Physics. INM RAS, Moscow, 2003 (in Russian).
V. B. Zalesny, A. V. Gusev, V. O. Ivchenko, R. Tamsalu, and R. Aps, Numerical model of the Baltic Sea circulation. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling 28 (2013), No. 1, 85–100.
V.I. Agoshkov, A.O. Zayachkovskiy, R. Aps, P. Kujala, and J. Rytkönen. Risk theory based solution to the problem of optimal vessel route // Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. 2014. Volume 29, Issue 2, Pages 69–78.
Agoshkov, V., Aseev, N., Aps, R., Kujala, P., Rytkönen, J., Zalesny, V. The problem of control of oil pollution risk in the Baltic Sea // Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling. 2014. Volume 29, Issue 2, Pages 93–105.
E. I. Parmuzin and V. I. Agoshkov, Numerical solution of the variational assimilation problem for sea surface temperature in the model of the Black Sea dynamics. Russ. J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling 27 (2012), No. 1, 69–94.
Olof Liungman and Johan Mattsson. Scientic Documentation of Seatrack Web; physical processes, algorithms and references, 2011. |
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