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| Titel |
A Bayesian approach to flow record infilling and extension for reservoir design |
| VerfasserIn |
D. A. Jones, K. J. Sene |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 3, no. 4 ; Nr. 3, no. 4, S.491-503 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001186
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-3-491-1999.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A Bayesian approach is described for dealing with the problem
of infilling and generating stochastic flow sequences using rainfall data to
guide the flow generation process, and including bounded (censored) observed
flow and rainfall data to provide additional information. Solutions are obtained
using a Gibbs sampling procedure. Particular problems discussed include
developing new procedures for fitting transformations when bounded values are
available, coping with additional information in the form of values, or bounds,
for totals of flows across several sites, and developing relationships between
annual flow and rainfall data. Examples are shown of both infilled values of
unknown past river flows, with assessment of uncertainty, and realisations of
flows representative of what might occur in the future. Several procedures for
validating the model output are described and the central estimates of flows,
taken as a surrogate for historical observed flows, are compared with long term
regional flow and rainfall data. |
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