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| Titel |
Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling |
| VerfasserIn |
T. O. Sonnenborg, D. Seifert, J. C. Refsgaard |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 9 ; Nr. 19, no. 9 (2015-09-16), S.3891-3901 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120809
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-3891-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of
uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models,
downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual
uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the
quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate
model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream
flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a
physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a
unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are
forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is
a result of a GCM–RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced
by the same CO2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period
(1991–2010) to the future period (2081–2100) in projected hydrological
variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate
model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty
propagation is context-dependent. While the geological conceptualization is
the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture
zones, the uncertainty due to the climate models is more important for
groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow. |
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