| This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the
influence of global and regional change on future water availability and
water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For
the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are
combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change). In the mo\-delling approach the quantification of
the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model
CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate
model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land
use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual
hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the
future water availability in Benin.
To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to
be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water
need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future
household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic
projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is
also considered.
The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the
development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2
for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach
for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025
will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data
concerning land use/land cover and climate are available. |