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| Titel |
Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Merz, H. Kreibich, A. Thieken, R. Schmidtke |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 4, no. 1 ; Nr. 4, no. 1 (2004-03-09), S.153-163 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001474
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-4-153-2004.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Traditional flood design methods are increasingly supplemented or replaced by
risk-oriented methods which are based on comprehensive risk analyses. Besides
meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic investigations such analyses require
the estimation of flood impacts. Flood impact assessments mainly focus on direct
economic losses using damage functions which relate property damage to damage-causing
factors. Although the flood damage of a building is influenced by many factors,
usually only inundation depth and building use are considered as damage-causing
factors. In this paper a data set of approximately 4000 damage records is analysed.
Each record represents the direct monetary damage to an inundated building. The
data set covers nine flood events in Germany from 1978 to 1994. It is shown that
the damage data follow a Lognormal distribution with a large variability, even when
stratified according to the building use and to water depth categories. Absolute
depth-damage functions which relate the total damage to the water depth are not
very helpful in explaining the variability of the damage data, because damage is
determined by various parameters besides the water depth. Because of this limitation
it has to be expected that flood damage assessments are associated with large
uncertainties. It is shown that the uncertainty of damage estimates depends on the
number of flooded buildings and on the distribution of building use within the
flooded area. The results are exemplified by a damage assessment for a rural area
in southwest Germany, for which damage estimates and uncertainty bounds are quantified
for a 100-year flood event. The estimates are compared to reported flood damages of
a severe flood in 1993. Given the enormous uncertainty of flood damage estimates
the refinement of flood damage data collection and modelling are major issues for
further empirical and methodological improvements. |
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