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| Titel |
Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: an example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy) |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Schilirò, C. Esposito, G. Scarascia Mugnozza |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 9 ; Nr. 15, no. 9 (2015-09-18), S.2091-2109 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119685
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-2091-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are a widespread phenomenon that
frequently causes substantial damage to property, as well as numerous
casualties. In recent~years a wide range of physically based models have been
developed to analyze the triggering process of these events. Specifically,
in this paper we propose an approach for the evaluation of different shallow
landslide-triggering scenarios by means of the TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and
grid-based slope stability) numerical model. For the
validation of the model, a back analysis of the landslide event that occurred in
the study area (located SW of Messina, northeastern Sicily, Italy) on 1
October 2009 was performed, by using different methods and techniques for
the definition of the input parameters. After evaluating the reliability of
the model through comparison with the 2009 landslide inventory,
different triggering scenarios were defined using rainfall values derived
from the rainfall probability curves, reconstructed on the basis of daily
and hourly historical rainfall data. The results emphasize how these
phenomena are likely to occur in the area, given that even short-duration
(1–3 h) rainfall events with a relatively low return period (e.g.,
10–20~years) can trigger numerous slope failures. Furthermore, for the same
rainfall amount, the daily simulations underestimate the instability
conditions. The high susceptibility of this area to shallow landslides is
testified by the high number of landslide/flood events that have occurred in the past
and are summarized in this paper by means of archival research. Considering
the main features of the proposed approach, the authors suggest that this
methodology could be applied to different areas, even for the development of
landslide early warning systems. |
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