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| Titel |
Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Sattler, H. Feddersen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2005-10-07), S.300-312 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006964
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-9-300-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts
(QPF) from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction
model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM) are addressed using two different approaches to
creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of
extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type
is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial
condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction
system (EPS) from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the
state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is
selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated
precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river
basin(s) under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and
boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble
approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty
responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising
different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the
LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or
contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the
performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different
dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the
ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses
from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) are used as the verifying reference and
a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river
basins of the historical cases. |
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