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| Titel |
Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, M. Nied |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 7 ; Nr. 14, no. 7 (2014-07-30), S.1921-1942 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118552
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-1921-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of
hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary
approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the
catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction
of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology,
topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but
they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with
broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the
climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional
system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic
processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and
improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical
approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the
causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and
river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics.
(3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and
this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the
perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management.
(4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes
in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to
better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the
global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an
international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to
further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance
flood research. |
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