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| Titel |
An ecohydrological sketch of climate change impacts on water and natural ecosystems for the Netherlands: bridging the gap between science and society |
| VerfasserIn |
J. P. M. Witte, J. Runhaar, R. Ek, D. C. J. Hoek, R. P. Bartholomeus, O. Batelaan, P. M. Bodegom, M. J. Wassen, S. E. A. T. M. Zee |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 11 ; Nr. 16, no. 11 (2012-11-01), S.3945-3957 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013551
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-3945-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
For policy making and spatial planning, information is needed about the
impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. To provide this
information, commonly hydrological and ecological models are used. We give
arguments for our assessment that modelling only is insufficient for
determining the impacts of climate changes on natural ecosystems at regional
scales. Instead, we proposed a combination of hydrological simulations, a
literature review and process-knowledge on climate-hydrology-vegetation
interactions, to compile a sketch map that indicates climate change effects
on a number of ecosystems in the Netherlands. Soon after a first version of
our sketch map was published by a Dutch professional journal, copies
appeared in policy documents, and also in a commercial and popular atlas of
the Netherlands. Moreover, the map led to a question in the Dutch parliament
about the sustainability of bog reserves under the future climate.
Apparently, there was an urgent need for the information provided by the
map.
The map shows that climate change will presumably have the largest influence
on ecosystems in the Netherlands that depend on precipitation as the major
water source, like heathlands, dry grasslands, rain-fed moorland pools and
raised bogs. Also highly susceptible are fens in reserves surrounded by
deeply drained polders, because such fens depend on the inlet of surface
water, of which quality is likely to deteriorate upon climate change. While
the map is indicative for directions of change, in view of the uncertainties
of our study, no conclusions should be drawn that may have far-reaching
consequences, such as giving up certain nature targets that might no longer
be feasible in the future climate. Instead, we advise to anticipate the
potential threats from climate change by taking a number of adaptation
measures that enhance the robustness of nature reserves.
To improve climate change projections on hydrology and ecosystems, future
research should especially focus on feedbacks of vegetation on the water
balance, on processes that directly influence plant performance and on the
ecological effects of weather extremes. |
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